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Updates from the Armyworm Network
07
Aug

Latest African and Fall Armyworm Forecast from ETOP – 7th Aug 2017

SYNOPSIS:

African armyworm (Spodoptera exempta) (AAW) outbreak season has ended in the IRLCO-CSA member-states and no AAW outbreaks were reported during July. AAW infestations were reported in June in Ethiopia and Uganda where control operations were carried out with material and technical assistance from the MoA and it is likely that this pest continued

Fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) (FAW) continued damaging maize and other crops in Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, Uganda, Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe during July. FAW has also been detected / reported in Sahel West Africa in Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Mali, and Niger. Aided by the inter-tropical front and seasonal trade winds, the pest continues spreading and taking advantage of associated ecological conditions to breed. Its presence is suspected in the Gambia, Sierra Leone and Senegal, but yet to be confirmed (inexperienced observers can confuse FAW with the indigenous African Armyworm (AAW) (AGRHYMET, FAO/SSD, IRLCO-CSA, PPD/Ethiopia, OFDA/PSPM, PHS/Tanzania).

CURRENT SITUATION:

African Armyworm (Spodoptera exempta) (AAW):

AAW outbreaks were reported attacking sorghum and pasture in Dire Dawa, Oromya and the SNNPR, Ethiopia where more than 80,300 ha of crops and 35,420 ha of pasture where reported attacked during June. Control operations treated close to 27,960 ha with 38,384 liters of pesticides during that time. AAW infestations may have continued in Ethiopia in July, updates were not available at the time this report was compiled. No AAW outbreaks were reported in the southern outbreak regions in Africa during July (IRLCO-CSA,OFDA/PSPM).

Fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) (FAW):

FAW continued affecting late planted and or irrigated maize crops in Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, Uganda, Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe during July. The pest continues spreading aided by the inter-tropical front and seasonal trade winds and breeds taking advantage of associated moisture. It has also been detected / reported in Sahel West Africa in Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Mali, and Niger and suspected in the Gambia, Sierra Leone and Senegal, but has yet to be confirmed (inexperienced observers can confuse FAW with the indigenous African armyworm (AAW) (AGRHYMET, FAO/SSD, IRLCO-CSA, OFDA/PSPM, PPD/Ethiopia, PPD/ Uganda, PHS/Tanzania)

In Ethiopia, as of July 31, 2017 (Hamlie 24, 2009 E.C.) 2,689,684 ha of maize were planted and more than 616,264 ha were reported attacked by FAW in 411 districts in 49 zones in six administrative regions. Control operations were effected in more 483,695 ha – 213,872 ha with chemical and 269,763 ha through mechanical and cultural means (PPD/Ethiopia).
An earlier estimate by MoA/Ethiopia, i.e., a potential loss of 15–30% in SNNP and 5–10% in Oromia where some localities reported 100% loss to FAW, was revised and puts a potential harvest loss of some 5% across the affected regions of the country. This estimate could increase as the pest continues affecting more and more crops. GoE has so far responded to the FAW with material, logistics, and financial support worth more than USD 2 million. It has extended a call to the public and the army to help abate the devastation the pest is causing. UN/FAO has provided USD 600,000 through its Technical Cooperation Project (TCP) to support FAW operations in the country. OCHA estimates some 2 million ha could be affected and USD 3.1-4.5 would be needed to abate the pest (OCHA). https://www.acaps.org/country/ethiopia/special-reports

FAW continued its north and westward migration following the inter-tropical front and taking advantage of associated rain during July. As of July 28, 2017, the pest has been detected, reported and/or suspected in several countries in Sahel West Africa – Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, the Gambia, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone and Senegal. According to information received on July 28, FAW had caused a significant damage to maize, sorghum, rice and other cereal crops in 30,000 ha in 13 regions in Burkina Faso. The GoBF has spent USD 2.3 million for pesticides and application equipment and has since called on farmers to procure their own pesticides to fight the pest (AGRHYMET, Bloomberg).

In Kenya, FAW outbreak continued affecting late planted maize crops in July and control operations were carried out by affected farmers with technical and material support from the Ministries of Agriculture was in progress. The MoA in Kenya provided training to extension staff and farmers on identification and control of FAW. The Country estimates 20-25% crop loss to FAW overall and allocated substantial amount of monetary and personnel resources to counter the pest that has already attacked and/or threatened maize crops in most of its maize growing countries. National Agricultural Research Centers are aggressively exploring and investigating for effective and sustainable control tools (IRLCO-CSA, PPD/Kenya).

Irrigated maize crops are attacked by FAW in Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe and control operations are implemented by the affected farmers with technical and material assistance from the MoAs. Comprehensive loss estimates have yet to be available, but it is expected that substantial losses will be incurred by the affected countries across the continent (IRLCO-CSA).

In July, FAW was reported attacking maize and sorghum in Eastern Equatorial State, Jubik, Central Equatorial, Northern Bahr El Gazal and Western Equatorial State Tambura Counties (FAO/SSD) in the Republic of South Sudan (SSD). FAW has been reported in SSD since June where it was reported attacking maize and sorghum fields in Eastern, Central and Western Equatorial (Nzara and Tambura Counties) and Northern Bahr El Ghazal. In Jubik it was detected during the 3rd dekad of June. According to FAO/SSD, farmers in Magwi Country in Eastern Equatorial State first detected the pest in areas adjacent to northern Uganda where it was observed attacking late-planted maize crops during mid-May, but neither the farmers nor the extension staff where able to determine whether it was African armyworm or FAW or other armyworm until a field photo was shared with OFDA/PSPM senior technical advisor who identified the pest as FAW. Access to the affected areas in iMagwi County was not possible to FAO staff due to the security situation in the region (FAO/SSD).
The first FAO/SSD field visit to the affected areas in Magwi County took place during the 3rd dekad of June where staff could travel with a UNMISS convoy and assess maize fields that were affected. The preliminary assessment suggested serious crop damage in 25% of the fields that were affected. Early planted maize fields were largely free from the pest attack. The pest has gained attention from GoSSD for support. Meanwhile, mechanical and cultural interventions remain essential to assist affected farmers, e.g., handpicking larvae, intercropping, crop coverage, crop hygiene, destroying severely affected plants, regular monitoring to reduce the larval caseload while other means of control interventions will be aggressively explored and implemented as soon as possible. USAID/OFDA/PSPM continues communicating with partners in SSD and shares relevant technical information with partners. OFDA/PSPM will continue monitoring the situation closely and provide advice and guidance as necessary.

Although an update was not received from Uganda, it is likely that the pest continued attacking maize crops in northern and other parts of the country during this month. Earlier MoA/Uganda estimates a potential annual loss of some 450,000 MT of maize to potentially established and unabated SFR outbreaks. GoU assisted affected farmers with material and technical support and helped control FAW outbreaks. It has also developed an action plan with a budget of USD 1 million before the pest migrated to several dozen districts and it is expected to have revised the action plan after the pest continued affecting many more districts (MoA/Uganda).

Rwanda has developed an action plan and mobilized its military force to control FAW caterpillars through mechanical and means.

Burundi requested an emergency technical assistance from FAO and FAO is considering a TCP project to assist with FAW issues (FAO-SFE).

Tanzania has developed an action plan to carry out surveillance and monitoring during the coming seasons and is on the lookout (PHS/Tanzania).

The Republic of Sudan took a preventive action back in June to get ahead of a potential FAW invasion and sent PPD experts to Ethiopia in collaboration with FAO/SFE and PPD/Ethiopia to observe, learn biology, detection, prevention and control interventions (PPD/Ethiopia).

FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6 WEEKS:

AAW: AAW outbreaks will likely occur in northern and Rift Valley regions of Ethiopia and perhaps southern Eritrea and Sahel West Africa, but southern outbreak countries will likely remain calm during the forecast period (IRLCO-CSA, OFDA/PSPM).

FAW: FAW will continue attacking late planted and irrigated crops in Ethiopia, South Sudan and may reach Sudan and Eritrea. In the southern Africa outbreak region, FAW will likely attack crops, especially irrigated cereal and late planted crops. With the inter-tropical front in Sahel West Africa moving further north by close to 350 km than its usual position and reaching central Mauritania, northwest Mali, southern Algeria, northern Niger and northeastern Chad, FAW will take advantage of associated rainfall and ecological conditions to further spread to rain-fed and irrigated cropping areas in these countries and cause damage to crops and pasture. The seasonal trade winds that may appear in the surrounding areas during the coming months will increase the chance of the pest spreading beyond Sahel Africa (OFDA/PSPM).

CREDIT:

This forecast comes from and uses material provided by DLCO-EA, IRLCO-CSA and OFDA/AELGA. It was originally issued by USAID’s Emergency Transboundary Outbreak Pest (ETOP) programme and is summarised here by the Armyworm Network (@spodoptera007) hosted by Lancaster University.

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