Latest Armyworm Forecast from ETOP (March 2019)
Synopsis
Fall Armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) (FAW): Mild FAW outbreaks were reported in late-planted maize in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe during March. The pest was also reported in Ethiopia, Kenya and perhaps a similar situation may have occurred in other countries in the region and beyond during this month
African Armyworm (AAW) (Spodoptera exempta): No AAW outbreak was reported during March.
Current situation
Fall armyworm (FAW)
FAW was reported in several countries during this month.
In Madagascar, FAW was reported in most of the maize growing regions of the countries in the greater south during February and March. According to a joint workshop by FAO and MinAgri, FAW infestations were reported in 11 of the 23 regions of the country where estimated total maize crops affected were put at 37% and 80%. This implies a potentially serious yield loss that can adversely impact food security and livelihoods of affected communities (Note: most of the areas that were assessed were in the southern part of the country that frequently suffers from drought and is largely under development compared to other regions of the country). Minor crops in the region – millet and sorghum – were reported doing well in several places in the country. End note).
MinAgri and FAO proposed an immediate intervention (MinAgri proposed pesticide application and FAO proposed biological control and capacity strengthening). MinAgri estimates the total cost of the proposed control interventions at $3,643,000.
In Ethiopia, FAW infestations were reported in Belg (short-rain) Maize and Sorghum crops in the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Administrative Region. Some 2,590 ha were reported infested in 119 villages in 20 Districts. Control operations were launched on 2,125 ha mainly through mechanical means (larval hand-picking) and by using pesticides. Some 280 Pheromone traps were also distributed to 14 Districts in Amhara, SNNP and Oromya Administrative Regions to reinforce monitoring and scouting (DLCO-EA).
FAW outbreaks were reported affecting late planted maize in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe during March. Infestations were also reported in Kakamega County in Kenya where the pest was detected affecting early planted maize (IRLCOCSA).
Damage data on affected crops in all countries has yet to arrive.
African Armyworm (AAW)
No AAW outbreak has ended in the southern outbreak regions and no infestations were reported during March (DLCO-EA, IRLCO-CSA).
Forecasts (for the next 6 weeks)
Fall armyworm (FAW)
FAW will likely continue affecting irrigated and/or rainfed maize and other crops in several countries in sub-Saharan African and across Southeast Asia during the forecast period.
African Armyworm (AAW)
AAW activities may commence in the secondary breeding regions in its central and northern outbreak regions in Kenya and northern Tanzania during the forecast period.
Acknowledgements
This forecast is published by Lancaster University’s Armyworm Network: http://www.armyworm.org/. It is an extract from the Emergency Transboundary Outbreak Pest (ETOP) situation report compiled by USAID/OFDA/PSPM. They monitor ETOPs regularly in close collaboration with their network of national PPDs/DPVs, regional and international pest monitoring and/or control entities, including FAO, CLCPRO, CRC, DLCO-EA, and IRLCO-CSA, as well as Agency partners, and NGOs and provides timely analytical bulletins and reports to stakeholders across the globe. For dated, archived ETOP SITREPs, please, go to: https://www.usaid.gov/what-wedo/working-crises-andconflict/responding-times-crisis/how-wedo-it/humanitarian-sectors/agricultureand-food-security/pest-and-pesticidemonitoring/archive
