Latest Armyworm Forecast from ETOP (June 2020)
Synopsis
Fall Armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) (FAW): FAW was reported in China, Tanzania, Vietnam and it is likely that the pest was present elsewhere in maize and other cereal growing areas during this month.
African Armyworm (Spodoptera exempta) (AAW): AAW outbreaks were not reported during this month.
Current situation
Fall armyworm (FAW)
Fall armyworm (FAW) was reported affecting maize in several countries in Africa, including Tanzania, Malawi and Zimbabwe. In China, FAW has spread across the Yangtze River and entered central China, reaching the border of Henan Province earlier this season than previous season. The pest movement to Northern China this year has occurred at least three months earlier than last year, suggesting the likelihood of becoming a resident in China’s largest corn producing region, 45% of the country’s corn producing regions. By May 28, FAW had affected 178,667 hectares in 720 counties spread across 17 provinces. GoC estimates a 2.5% corn deficit due to FAW but others predict higher deficit and soaring price. Other maize growing regions across Africa, Asia, Pacific and elsewhere likely experienced FAW presence during June (DLCO-EA, IRLCOCSA, BHA/TPQ, USDA/FAS/GAIN).
African Armyworm (AAW)
AAW outbreaks were not reported during this month (IRLCO-CSA).
Forecasts (for the next 6 weeks)
Fall armyworm (FAW)
FAW will likely continue affecting rain-fed and irrigated maize and other cereal crops across sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, the Pacific Regions and elsewhere during the forecast period. Active monitoring, surveillance, reporting and preventive and curative actions remain critical to abate significant crop damage (OFDA).
African Armyworm (AAW)
AAW activities will likely remain calm in the primary outbreak areas during the forecast period (IRLCOCSA, BHA/TPQ).
Acknowledgements
This forecast is published by Lancaster University’s Armyworm Network: http://www.armyworm.org/. It is an extract from the Emergency Transboundary Outbreak Pest (ETOP) situation report compiled by USAID/OFDA/PSPM. They monitor ETOPs regularly in close collaboration with their network of national PPDs/DPVs, regional and international pest monitoring and/or control entities, including FAO, CLCPRO, CRC, DLCO-EA, and IRLCO-CSA, as well as Agency partners, and NGOs and provides timely analytical bulletins and reports to stakeholders across the globe. For dated, archived ETOP SITREPs, please, go to: https://www.usaid.gov/what-wedo/working-crises-andconflict/responding-times-crisis/how-wedo-it/humanitarian-sectors/agricultureand-food-security/pest-and-pesticidemonitoring/archive
