Latest African and Fall Armyworm Forecast from ETOP – 7th May 2017
SYNOPSIS:
African armyworm (Spodoptera exempta) (AAW) outbreaks were reported in Kenya where control operations were launched by affected farmers with technical and material assistance from the MoAs and increased moth catches were reported on southern Ethiopia during late April (DLCO/EA, IRLCO-CSA).
Fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) (FAW) continued affecting maize and other crops in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The pest was reported in Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Angola, Malawi, and Zimbabwe where it was causing damage to maize and other cereal crops during April.
CURRENT SITUATION:
African Armyworm (Spodoptera exempta) (AAW):
AAW outbreaks were reported in Kwale, Kilifi and Taita Taveta counties in Coast Province in Kenya. The pest was reported damaging maize and pasture. Control was carried out by the affected farmers with technical assistance from Ministry of Agriculture extension staff (IRLCO-CSA).
Fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) (FAW):
FAW, a fast spreading, voracious multi-crop pest, that was previously reported causing damage to maize crops in dozens of countries across southern, southcentral, the greater lake and eastern Africa, including Swaziland, South Africa, Botswana, DRC, Namibia, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Nigeria, Togo, Benin, Soa Tome and Principe, Cameroon and Ghana, has been reported in Kenya, Ethiopia and Angola, and may have reached war-torn South Sudan.
In Ethiopia, the pest was first detected in irrigated crops in SNNPR during the 1st week of March and by mid-April, the pest was reported attacking maize, rice, taro and Enset plants (false banana, the roots of which are the main source of staple food for millions of people in SNNPR of Ethiopia). Towards late April crop damage was reported on some 22,900 ha in 73 Weredas (districts) in 13 Zones in the SNNP Region and Oromia and continued spreading. Surveillance and control efforts are being launched by MoA and affected farmers (48,300 farmers participated in preventive and curative interventions, employing hand pick and pesticides). MoA/ETH estimates crop losses of up to 15–30% in SNNP and 5–10% in Oromia where some localities reported 100% loss). The pest is following the wind direction and spreading northward and is expected to threaten crops in the central and northern parts of the country during the forecast period. GoE is appealing to its partners for assistance (PPD/Ethiopia).
In Uganda, AAW and FAW outbreaks were reported in 20 districts across the country and continued spreading to other areas. MoA/Uganda estimates a potential annually loss of some 450,000 MT of maize to unabated SFR. The pest has caused complete crop damage needing replanting in some localities in some countries. Control operations are being undertaken by the affected farmers with technical and material assistance from respective MoAs in affected countries. The MoA extension staff and affected farmers were spraying with insecticides MoA/Uganda estimates a potential annually loss of some 450,000 MT of maize to unabated SFR (DLCO-EA, OCHA).
In Kenya, FAW was reported attacking late planted maize crops on more than 100,000 ha in 18 Counties. In Tanzania, FAW was reported attacking maize crops in 7 regions. In Malawi and Zimbabwe, the pest was reported attacking irrigated maize crops (DLCO-EA, IRLCO-CSA).
FAW has been reported attacking maize crops in Ghana and neighboring countries in central-west Africa.
According to a preliminary Evidence Note recently released by CABI, FAW is expected to have caused damage to an estimated 13.5 million tons of maize (valued at US$3 billion). So far, FAW damage has been reported on more than 300,000 ha of maize in sub-Saharan Africa just over the past five months. The Note estimates a predicted loss of more than USD 13.38 billion in maize, sorghum, rice and sugarcane – mostly rice paddy, maize and sugarcane.
Maize is cultivated on over tens of million ha in Africa and FAW is a major threat and can cause more damage to maize crops over vast areas than the desert locust, which does not reach some of the maize growing wetter regions of Africa.
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6 WEEKS:
AAW: The outbreak season has come to an end in Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe and significant developments are not expected during the forecast period. However, the pest will continue its northward journey to eastern Africa – Kenya and northern Tanzania and likely start appearing in southern Ethiopia where high trap catches have been already reported in some areas which are already being battered by the ravaging fall armyworm (DLCO-EA, IRLCO-CSA, PPD/Ethiopia).
FAW: With the Intertropical Front moving northward during the coming months, it is likely that the pest will continue its northward trajectory and threaten crops in many countries and may even reach beyond sub-Saharan Africa. This pest can travel up to 100 km/day with the capacity to reach more than 1,000 km during its life and even further with the support of strong winds. FAW will likely remain active in late planted or irrigated maize crops during the forecast period. However, it is not clear how this will develop, but regardless, affected countries must remain vigilant and maintain monitoring, surveillance and implement preventive interventions as needed and neighboring countries must remain on alert. All countries are strongly encouraged to share information on FAW sightings in their countries with neighboring countries.
CREDIT:
This forecast comes from and uses material provided by DLCO-EA, IRLCO-CSA and OFDA/AELGA. It was originally issued by USAID’s Emergency Transboundary Outbreak Pest (ETOP) programme and is summarised here by the Armyworm Network (@spodoptera007) hosted by Lancaster University.
