Latest African and Fall Armyworm Forecast from ETOP – 5th Oct 2017
SYNOPSIS:
African armyworm (Spodoptera exempta) (AAW) outbreaks were not reported during September. The pest will likely begin appearing in the southern outbreak region during the forecast period.
Fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) (FAW) outbreaks continued attacking maize crops in Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe during September and control operations were effected with assistance from the MoAs. Although updates were not received from other maize growing countries across Africa, it is likely that the pest is causing problem to maize crops there as well.
CURRENT SITUATION:
African Armyworm (Spodoptera exempta) (AAW):
There were no reports of AAW during September (DLCO-ER, IRLCO-CSA, OFDA/PSPM).
Fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) (FAW):
FAW infestations were reported in irrigated cereal crops in Kilimanjaro, Arusha and Manyara, Mbeya, Iringa and Rukwa regions in Tanzania during September. Infestations were also reported in maize and/or sorghum fields in Uganda and parts of Kenya where MoA/national plant protection officers continued providing technical assistance to affected farmers via demonstrations and through media outlets. In Ethiopia, as of September 25, new FAW infestations were reported in two additional administrative regions – Afar and Somali – where maize crops in 9 villages in 4 Districts were affected. To date, more than 646,740 ha have been reported affected in 8 of the 9 administrative regions of Ethiopia. Control operations were launched on more than 617,056 ha (253,572 with chemical and 363,483 ha through mechanical means). FAW outbreaks were also reported in irrigated maize crops in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe during September. Control operations were launched by affected farmers with technical and material assistance from the Ministries of Agriculture (IRLCO-CSA). FAW was reported invading sorghum crops in Gadarif, Sudan and detected in maize crops in Mali (PPD/Ethiopia, PPD/Sudan). Crop loss data was not was not available from these countries at the time this report was compiled.
To date, more than twenty eight countries across Africa have confirmed the presence of FAW, the most recent being the Republic of Sudan and Mali. A few more countries have also suspected the presence of the pest, but have yet to confirm pest identity (FAO/SSD, IRLCO-CSA, OFDA/PSPM, PPD/Ethiopia, PPD/Sudan, PPD/South Sudan).
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6 WEEKS:
AAW: AAW breeding season will commence with the onset of the rains in the southern outbreak region in October/November 2017, but will have come to an end in the central and eastern outbreak regions.
FAW: FAW will continue spreading across Africa attacking late planted, irrigated and in-season crops where ecological conditions are favorable. If left unattended, infestations that were reported in eastern Sudan and eastern Ethiopia will likely spread to neighboring countries during the forecast period. With its ability to migrate far distance and taking advantage of seasonal winds and strong currents, the pest will likely continue expanding its infestation range and threaten various crop species within its host range in its new territories.
Trap operators for both AAW and FAW are advised to actively monitor their traps and send their trap moth catches to their national forecasting and or village forecasting officers. Trap monitoring should be accompanied by routine crop scouting to detect egg and larval presence and to take necessary control actions.
CREDIT:
This forecast comes from and uses material provided by DLCO-EA, IRLCO-CSA and OFDA/AELGA. It was originally issued by USAID’s Emergency Transboundary Outbreak Pest (ETOP) programme and is summarised here by the Armyworm Network (@spodoptera007) hosted by Lancaster University.
