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Updates from the Armyworm Network
05
Jun

Latest African and Fall Armyworm Forecast from ETOP – 5th Jun 2017

SYNOPSIS:

African armyworm (Spodoptera exempta) (AAW) infestations were reported in 13,925 ha in 13 districts in Oromya and SNNP regions in Ethiopia where control operations treated some 3460 ha during May. AAW outbreaks were also reported in Arua and Moyo districts in West Nile Region in Uganda where MoA provided pesticides and technical support to affected farmers to control the outbreaks (DLCO-EA, IRLOC-CSA), PPD/Uganda).

Fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) (FAW) continued affecting maize and other crops in many countries including Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe during May. No update was received on FAW in West and Central Africa regions and significant developments are not expected during this period. The pest may have also reached South Sudan, but this was not possible to confirm due to the ongoing security situation. The Republic of Sudan has taken a preventive action to get ahead of a potential FAW invasion by sending PPD experts to Ethiopia to observe and learn (DLCO-EA, IRLCO-CSA, PPD/Ethiopia, PPD/Uganda, PHS/Tanzania).

CURRENT SITUATION:

African Armyworm (Spodoptera exempta) (AAW):

AAW infestations were reported in 13,925 ha in 13 districts in Oromya and SNNP regions in Ethiopia where control operations treated some 3460 ha during May. AAW outbreaks were also reported in Arua and Moyo districts in West Nile Region in Uganda where MoA provided pesticides and technical support to affected farmers to control the outbreaks (DLCO-EA, IRLOC-CSA), PPD/Uganda).

Fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) (FAW):

FAW continued affecting maize and other crops in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

In Ethiopia, FAW has spread to SNNP, Oromya and Gambella Region in May and ground operations controlled 53,659 ha using pesticides (44,686 l reported sprayed), cultural and mechanical means. Surveillance and control efforts are being coordinated and launched by MoA with the participation of affected farmers (48,300 farmers participated in control operations, with hand picking and pesticides). In the previous month, MoA/Ethiopia estimated crop losses of up to 15–30% in SNNP and 5–10% in Oromia where some localities reported 100% loss). This estimate could increase as the pest continuous affecting crops and pasture. GoE and its partner have developed an action plan with a budget of USD 12 million plus and appealing to its partners for assistance.

In Kenya, the pest has been reported in 27 of the 47 counties threatening more than 200,000 ha of maize crops. Ground control operations continued in all affected areas by farmers with assistance and coordination from the MoA. It is worth noting that most of the infestations in Kenya were reported in the western and Rift Valley parts of the country which suggests that the pest might have migrated from Uganda.

FAW may have crossed into South Sudan, but it was not possible to confirm at the time this report was compiled due to the ongoing security situation.

The Republic of Sudan has taken a proactive action to get ahead of a potential FAW invasion and to this effect, it sent a team of PPD experts to Ethiopia to observe outbreaks and learn ways and means to tackle the problem (PPD/Ethiopia).

In Uganda, FAW outbreaks continued spreading and reached 78 districts by May (by late April 60 districts were reported affected). The pest was detected in Moyo, Kotido, Karamajo and other districted in North Eastern part of the country where late rains were reported. MoA/Uganda provided pesticide to affected farmers and sprayers to model farmers to demonstrate appropriate control operations (PPD/Uganda). The pest was reported causing a total crop loss in some places where replanting was necessitated. MoA/Uganda estimates a potential annual loss of some 450,000 MT of maize to established and unabated FAW outbreaks. GoU developed an action plan with a budget of USD 1 million before the pest migrated to that several dozen districts and it is expected to have revised the action plan after the pest continued affecting many more districts (MoA/Uganda).

Rwanda has developed an action plan for USD 700,000 with USD 200,000 from its own and the rest soliciting from partners.

Burundi requested an emergency technical assistance from FAO and FAO is considering a TCP project to assist with FAW issues (FAO-SFE)

Tanzania has developed an action plan to carry out surveillance and monitoring during the coming seasons.

FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6 WEEKS:

AAW: AAW outbreaks will likely occur in northern Kenya, in the eastern and northern parts of Uganda and in the western, southeastern and Rift Valley regions of Ethiopia during the forecast period (DLCO-EA, IRLCO-CSA, PPD/Ethiopia).

FAW: With the Intertropical Front moving northward during the coming months, it is likely that the pest will continue its northward trajectory and threaten crops in many countries. In Ethiopia, the pest will likely follow the seasonal wind direction and continue spreading north and westward and affect the central, northwestern and northern parts of the country. In Kenya and Uganda, it will likely continue spreading further north into the western and the Rift Valley, northern and north-eastern Uganda and perhaps reach South Sudan and other areas during the forecast period.

CREDIT:

This forecast comes from and uses material provided by DLCO-EA, IRLCO-CSA and OFDA/AELGA. It was originally issued by USAID’s Emergency Transboundary Outbreak Pest (ETOP) programme and is summarised here by the Armyworm Network (@spodoptera007) hosted by Lancaster University.

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